Each year it seems the college admissions process becomes more and more competitive. As independent college counselors, we’re always tracking the trends, meeting with college admissions professionals, and gathering with our peers to unpack the latest data so we can best advise our students. And now, more than ever, it’s critical to build a balanced list of schools. Below we break down just how to do that, as well as address the common questions and concerns we receive from students and their families.
Build Your School List Intentionally With These 4 Categories
When working with our students to build their college lists, we ask them to include at least 2 Likely options, and each school on their list must be one they would be happy to attend. We help students understand how each college they are considering may be categorized based on their individual student profile as compared to recent admitted student profiles, and other data available to us.
How? By using four categories:
1. Unlikelies (unpredictable)
2. Reaches (aspirational)
3. Targets (academically aligned, realistic)
4. Likelies (exceptional alignment suggesting high probability)
AND evaluating:
• Overall admit rate vs. major-specific admit rate (when available)
• In-state vs. out-of-state dynamics
• Academic rigor
• Testing strategy
• Transcript decisions
• Extracurricular activities
This may seem overwhelming, and while it does take significant effort, it can be broken down into multiple steps – which we have outlined below.
5 Steps To Build a Balanced College List
Once you understand the above four categories, you may wonder how you can start to categorize colleges yourself. While there is no perfect formula, if you follow the following steps you’ll start making progress.
Step 1: Start With Academic Alignment
Academic alignment is understanding the middle 50% range of recently admitted students for a college and then comparing your own academic credentials. This is a helpful first step so you can avoid falling in love with a school with which you are not academically aligned. Please keep in mind that there are other factors that are considered as well in addition to the below.
Most colleges post this data on their website or you can check out the most recent Common Data Set for the college.
Compare:
• GPA (weighted and unweighted if available)
• SAT/ACT ranges (when available)
• High school rigor (AP, IB, honors courses)
If your GPA and scores fall:
• Above the middle 50% → Likely
• Within the middle 50% → Target
• Below the middle 50% → Reach/Unlikely
• But this is only the starting point. Now you want to consider the major(s) you’re interested in pursuing.
Step 2: Consider Major-Specific Competitiveness
Some majors are more competitive than others. The common examples we share with students are business, engineering, nursing, and computer science. If you’re applying to one of these most selective majors, chances are the middle 50% range for these specific majors tend to skew higher. These ranges are often posted on college websites as well, but are not usually broken down within the Common Data Set.
Once you understand this distinction, you may need to recategorize some of your college selections. Keep in mind this can result in students being admitted to a university but not admitted to their intended major.
Step 3: Pay Attention to State Residency
Another key data point is that many public universities often give preference to in-state applicants. Think about public colleges in the states of Georgia, Virginia, Texas and North Carolina (just to name a few) as examples.
Families sometimes assume a school is a “match” based on national rankings, but residency can shift the odds dramatically. This is why we encourage our families to understand that relying on general admit rates alone is not always accurate.
Step 4: Build the List Backwards
One of the simplest strategies is to build the likely schools first. Start by identifying 2–3 colleges where you would be happy and admission is highly probable. Then add to that a few targets and reaches. Then if you want to add some of the unlikely/aspirational schools you can do so. When you start with the most selective schools, the list often becomes top-heavy, stressful and most imbalanced with disappointment. When you start with strong likely options, the entire process can feel calmer. No one wants you to regret not applying to a “dream” school, but a balanced list building means knowing you’re cheating a high probability of having a choice at the end of the process.
Step 5: Confirm Fit Beyond Admissions Odds
Even if admission is likely, it does not equate to a school that is “less than.” More colleges are likely than not and still offer:
• Academic programs the student genuinely enjoys
• Opportunities for internships or research
• A social environment where the student will feel comfortable
• A financial plan that makes sense for the family
• A college is only a true Likely if the student would be excited to attend.
Common Questions on Current Admission Trends
While we have fielded the following questions or versions of them throughout the years, they are really striking home in this more competitive admissions environment:
• Is It Really That Hard for My B Student to Get Into College?
• Maryland [or another popular flagship] used to be a safety
• One bad dual enrollment class shouldn’t matter… right?
Let’s break these questions down into the fears behind them.
Yes, Admissions Is Harder at Some Colleges
If we’re talking about highly selective private universities and increasingly competitive public flagships, the numbers have changed dramatically over the last 15–20 years.
For example:
• The University of Michigan admitted roughly half of applicants in the mid-2000s. Today, it admits under 20% overall, and significantly fewer out-of-state students.
• The University of Texas at Austin once admitted well over 50% of applicants. Today it’s below 30% overall, with even lower rates outside the automatic in-state threshold.
• The University of Maryland, College Park has seen its admit rate drop from around 60% in the mid-2000s to the mid-30% range in recent cycles, and certain majors like computer science are “limited enrollment majors” meaning seats are capped, admission is more competitive and admit rates are even lower.
• Schools like Northeastern University and Boston University now admit a small fraction of applicants, with academic profiles that skew heavily toward A/A+ averages and very strong testing (when submitted).
At some colleges and universities applications have doubled, or even tripled, in recent years. Class sizes have not.
That’s math.
When 60,000–80,000 students apply for a finite number of seats, many highly capable students will be denied.
That’s not about the “worth” of the student who is applying. It’s about volume. For some additional perspective on volume at a smaller highly selective institution, check out this 2006 MIT blog, recently shared by Amherst’s Matt McGann on a Six Colleges Counselor webinar. (Be sure to read to the end for a follow up to this).
But No, It’s Not “That Hard” to Get Into College
Nationally, most four-year colleges still admit a majority of applicants. Therefore, the issue isn’t whether a B student can go to college. The issue is whether the B student has created a list that reflects reality. If a student with mostly B grades is applying primarily to institutions where the middle 50% GPA is solidly in the A range, that’s a mismatch. Not a failure, just a mismatch and mismatches are fixable.
What Has Shifted in the College Admissions Process?
There are a few big forces at play:
1. Grade Inflation
More students are presenting with high GPAs than ever before. That compresses the top of the applicant pool. It becomes harder for colleges to differentiate between strong students.
2. The Rise in Applications
The Common App has expanded dramatically. Students apply to more schools “just in case.” Colleges market aggressively. The funnel widens. Admit rates drop.
3. Testing Is Quietly Re-Entering the Conversation
Even at test-optional schools, we are seeing data that suggests strong score submitters may have an advantage in some cases. Several public flagships have reinstated testing requirements.
In a sea of A averages, testing becomes one of the few standardized academic measures across high schools. Families who assume “tests don’t matter anymore” may be competing against students using them strategically.
A Word About Dual Enrollment
This is another area where expectations sometimes lag behind reality.
We recently attended a webinar hosted by a large state university system. An admissions officer shared something that especially resonated:
Families should think carefully about dual enrollment because those college courses remain on a student’s permanent college transcript and may be used in future GPA calculations.
In other words, a dual enrollment grade doesn’t just “live” on the high school transcript. It becomes part of a student’s official college academic record. At highly selective institutions, a failed or weak dual enrollment grade absolutely factors into the review. It signals college-level readiness, or a lack thereof. That doesn’t mean dual enrollment is bad. For the right student, it can be a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate rigor and pursue classes not otherwise offered at their high school.
But it does mean families should approach it strategically, not casually.
The Calm Reset
Building a smart, balanced college list is not about adding stress to the college admissions journey. Nor is it about lowering expectations, but aligning them.
A thoughtful, well-balanced list does not limit opportunity. It increases it. The goal is not to prove that your student is exceptional by collecting the most selective applications possible. The goal is to secure excellent options, places where your student will be admitted, supported, and positioned to thrive, socially, academically, financially and emotionally. What we at Signature College Counseling call your “SAFE” match. And it’s worth noting that a balanced list can include options in the reach and unlikely categories. We don’t want to dash dreams, but we must plan for what is probable.
When you approach college list-building with this mindset, the process feels far less like a gamble and more like a strategy.
Looking for help with the college search and application process? We help students and families through the entire college planning journey – from search, applications and essays to interview prep, financial aid consultation and final school selection.
Contact us at info@signaturecollegecounseling.com or by phone, 845.551.6946. We work with students through Zoom, over the phone and by email.
